Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond

This paper develops a uni ̄ed growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained growth of income. (JEL J13, O11, O33, O40) This paper analyzes the historical evolution of the relationship between population growth, technological change, and the standard of living. It develops a uni ̄ed model that encompasses the transition between three distinct regimes that have characterized the process of economic development: the \Malthusian Regime," the \Post-Malthusian Regime,"